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Curve Bull Flattens On Tuesday

US TSYS

TYZ3 deals at 108-04+, +0-00+, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 1-8bps richer across the major benchmarks on Tuesday, the curve bull flattened.
  • Tsys drifted higher through Tuesday's session looking through hawkish Fedspeak from Gov. Bowman who maintained her hawkish stance noting that she expects the Fed will need to hike further to get inflation down to target in a timely way.
  • The latest 3-Year Auction was on the screws, there was little reaction in the Tsy market at the reopen.
  • FOMC dated OIS now price a terminal rate of 5.35%, there are ~65bps of cuts by Sep 24.
  • Oil fell ~4.5%, its weakest day since July as weak trade data from China and a firmer USD weighed on Tuesday. WTI now sits at a touch above the $77 handle, its lowest level since 21 July. BBDXY was up ~0.3%.
  • There is a thin docket in Asia today, further out we have US wholesale inventories and New York Fed President Williams speaks. The latest 10-Year Supply is due.
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