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Curve Inversion Hits Deepest Since SVB

US TSYS
  • The US Treasury curve heads into the Friday close flatter, with the long-end outperforming thanks to a solid pullback in the 30y yield. The MNI Chicago PMI came in below expectations (41.5 vs. Exp. 43.8) to mark the tenth consecutive month of contraction for the measure, helping trigger a sustained pullback across the curve, with the longer-end coming under the most considerable pressure.
  • The very short-end saw more stability after the final University of Michigan Confidence Survey, which showed an improvement in sentiment relative to the flash figure - although inflation expectations were unchanged.
  • As a result, curve inversion tipped the 2y30y and 5y10y curves to their most inverted level since March and the SVB fallout, with evidence of flattener trades via blocks adding extra weight to the measures.
  • Market-implied Fed Fund Rate expectations were more responsive to a softer-than-expected PCE release, keeping the terminal rate at the Nov meeting (pricing a cumulative +33.5bp of hikes).
  • Focus ahead turns to the June ISM Manufacturing and services releases, as well as nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Markets expect the US to have added 225k jobs across the month, with the unemployment rate expected to step lower by 0.1ppts to 3.6%.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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