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Curves Off Deeper Inversion

US TSYS
  • Intermediate to long-end Treasury futures continue to gradually extend session lows, while yield curves bounce off deeper inversion after midday 2Y futures Block buy: 2s10s currently +1.978 at -56.670 vs. -64.490 low.
  • This morning's data underscores a likely 25bp rate hike from the FOMC on Wednesday: April ISM Prices Paid climbs to 53.2, well over expected 49.0; S&P manufacturing PMI came out slightly lower than expected: 50.2 vs. 50.4 est, but gaining nonetheless vs. 49.2 in March.
  • We'd caution this is a volatile series that tends to track commodity prices as much as anything - so while important, it partly reflects a bounce from the sharp drop in commodity prices last year (Prices Paid bottomed at 39.4 in Dec when the 6-month % change in raw industrials and oil prices were dropping double digits - see chart). Though clearly, we're past the lows.
  • Otherwise, US markets remain generally quiet, light volumes with much of Europe out for May Day bank holiday, TYM3 just over 750k at the moment.
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