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Daly and Bostic Only Tweak Day's Climb In Fed Implied Rates

STIR
  • More balanced/less hawkish commentary from ’24 voters Daly and Bostic has only marginally taken the edge off a consistent move higher in Fed implied rates, seemingly helped by Kashkari (’23) and Bullard (non-voter) comments earlier today.
  • The moves have been surprisingly large considering Kashkari broadly reiterated Sunday’s WSJ comments and Bullard kept to the view of two further rate hikes, although that was from April so perhaps of more note that it still stands.
  • June pricing has recently dipped 0.5bp but still climbs 2.5bps on the day to +6.5bps, not quite retracing the 8-9bps before Friday’s debt impasse headlines. The year-end rate of 4.70% has closed relatively more of the gap though, +7bp on the day to imply 38bp of cut from current levels.
  • If this climb higher is based on some renewed debt deal optimism then the Biden-McCarthy talk at 1730ET could be an important catalyst.


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