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OIL PRODUCTS: Dangote to Define Atlantic Gasoline Market Trajectory: Kpler

OIL PRODUCTS
USCommoditiesEnergy BulletsBulletNorth America

Kpler’s outlook for gasoline remains relatively constructive, it said at its energy forum Feb. 24, but the outlook is in part dependent on the advancements of Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote refinery.

  • If Dangote runs at 60%, the additional supply of high-octane blending will offset lost supply from EU
  • If Dangote doesn’t or issue, won’t get replaced supply and will be supportive for gasoline due to lack of blending components.
  • Kpler said that WAF market seems to be gone for EU gasoline exporters, demonstrated by ballooning inventories.
  • This contrasts with outlooks from Platts, who expect Nigeria’s exports to hit a floor of around 50k b/d by 2027, before increasing imports to meet its rising demand.
  • Looking at the wider Atlantic market, PADD 1 inventories remain elevated, which will cap transatlantic flows.
  • Cutting runs marginally will not give significant help in reducing exposure to a long gasoline market, Kpler also said.
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Kpler’s outlook for gasoline remains relatively constructive, it said at its energy forum Feb. 24, but the outlook is in part dependent on the advancements of Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote refinery.

  • If Dangote runs at 60%, the additional supply of high-octane blending will offset lost supply from EU
  • If Dangote doesn’t or issue, won’t get replaced supply and will be supportive for gasoline due to lack of blending components.
  • Kpler said that WAF market seems to be gone for EU gasoline exporters, demonstrated by ballooning inventories.
  • This contrasts with outlooks from Platts, who expect Nigeria’s exports to hit a floor of around 50k b/d by 2027, before increasing imports to meet its rising demand.
  • Looking at the wider Atlantic market, PADD 1 inventories remain elevated, which will cap transatlantic flows.
  • Cutting runs marginally will not give significant help in reducing exposure to a long gasoline market, Kpler also said.