Data Due at 7am

Monthly GDP and its components (IP, services, trade, construction) are all due for release at 7:00BST and will be watched closely ahead of next week's MPC meeting. 29/32 economists in the early Bloomberg poll expect a smaller increase in growth than in June despite the "Super Saturday" re-opening of pubs and restaurants (and a number of other businesses) on 4 July. However there is a wide confidence band around the data. The median estimate is for 6.7% growth but the majority of expectations in the survey look for growth in the 5-8% range M/M (which corresponds to a drop of 6.5-8.0% on the 3M/3M measure). These estimates all see the size of the UK economy more than 10% below its February peak (the economy was 17.2% below February's level in June).

• The index of services improved 7.7% in June but remains 17.6% below the pre-crisis level and markets expect the indicator to rise again by 7.0% in July. Industrial production ticked up 9.3% in June after having grown 6.2% in the previous months. However, the May and June upticks could not make up for the losses recorded in March and April. In July, production is forecast to rise at a slower pace of 4.2% on a monthly basis.
• Forward looking indicators point to another increase in July as well as in August. The services and manufacturing PMIs both registered above the 50-mark in July and August, showing the fastest rate of expansion in five years in the service sector, while output in the manufacturing sector hit a six-year high. Nevertheless, both surveys reported another downtick in employment as companies still aren't operating at full capacity and the backlog of work is still declining. Moreover, the reopening effect which boosted both July's and August's figures, is likely to fade in the coming months, likely leading to decelerating growth rates. There are also several downside risks for a sustained recovery such as the lingering fear of rising unemployment once the furlough scheme ends as well as rising Covid-19 cases and subsequent social distancing measures.