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Free AccessDBK-CBK Merger Talks May Reopen; Not An Obvious Credit Positive
- In-market consolidation is generally viewed as the best option for a bank and DB has looked at Commerz in the past. DB is about twice the size so would be a takeover. DB bought Deutsche Postbank over a decade ago and has only just completed the merger synergy process; this highlights the issue with such deals in Germany; some of Europe's strictest labour laws.
- Deutsche has been plagued with an underperforming inv bank (since buying Bankers Trust over 20yrs ago) but has done much to both shrink and de-risk the business in the last five years, regaining some credibility with investors, so there might be some appetite here.
- German domestic banking is a problem child with a system that rarely covers an economic cost of capital. CBK (rated A2/A-/wd) and DBK (rated A1/A/wd) similarly rated but the reduction in IB earnings within the mix would offer some credit support but only if there is real political impetus to help mgmt drive out cost from the merging domestic retail businesses.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.