Industrial Orders (Jul 2020) Preview 0700BST 4/9/20

Consensus: +5.0% m/m; -6.0% y/y; Prev (Jun): +27.9% m/m, -11.3% y/y

• M/M industrial orders surged 27.9% in Jun following May's strong reading of 10.4%, however Destatis noted that Jun's orders were still 11.3% lower than in Feb.
• The opening up of the economy after the lockdown provided a significant boost to demand, although the initial reopening effect is likely to fade.
• In Jul, markets are looking for another uptick, although at a slower pace of 5.0%.
• Y/Y orders fell by 11.3% in Jun after plunging 29.3% in May and markets expect another increase in Jul to -6.0%.
• Junes report noted that orders in the automotive sector rose sharply in Jun, jumping 66.5% m/m, although remain 12.2% below Feb's level.
• The VDIK (association of International Motor Vehicle Manufacturers) reported that 20% less cars have been registered in Aug compared to a year ago.
• Meanwhile, the VDMA, one of Germany's largest industry associations, stated that orders in the mechanical and plant engineering sector probably bottomed out in Jul, showing an y/y decline of 19% compared to a 31%-drop in Jun.
• On the other hand, the mfg sub-indicator of the Ifo business survey recorded the fourth successive uptick in Aug