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Dealing On A weak Note, Light Local Calendar Next Week

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -5.0) are holding weaker but off Sydney session cheaps. With the domestic calendar light, the local market has drifted with cash US tsys, which are flat to 1bp cheaper. The US calendar is also light today.

  • The latest round of ACGB Nov-27 supply saw firm pricing, the weighted average yield printing through prevailing mids and the cover ratio jumping to a robust 4.3929x. Notably, today’s auction cleared with a low number of successful bidders, indicating aggressive bids from those investors.
  • The AOFM announced that a new 21 December 2035 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication in the week beginning 22 July 2024 (subject to market conditions). The issue size is expected to be around $10 billion.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-5bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +8bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is cheaper, with pricing -2 to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer across meetings, with February 2025 leading. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.44%.
  • The local calendar is empty next week apart from Preliminary Judo Bank PMIs on Wednesday.
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