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Dec FOMC Preview: Analysts See Fed Peak Rates Between 4.6-5.6%


MNI's summary of Analyst Views for the December FOMC meeting was published yesterday (Full PDF is here). Some highlights:

  • Most focus is on the 2023 median rate dot in the December Summary of Economic Projections. Opinion is fairly evenly split over what the 2023 median will be between 4.9% and 5.1%.
  • Most expect little to no change in the December FOMC statement; some (Barclays, JPM, Morgan Stanley) expect we could see a change to the "ongoing increases" guidance in a direction that suggests the peak in rates is nearing. Though this would probably be offset by some added hawkish language as well (others who don't expect a change to "ongoing" see potential for the statement to add that restrictive policy is needed for "some time").
  • Analysts’ peak rate expectations range from 4.6% (Morgan Stanley, SEB) to 5.6% (Nomura).
  • More in the full PDF; a summary of rate outlooks below:

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