Dec Trade Slightly Better Than Expected, Commodity Import Volumes Mostly Higher

China Dec trade figures were slightly better than expected. Headline exports were +2.3% y/y (1.5% forecast and 0.5% prior). Imports were positive at 0.2% y/y, versus -0.5% forecast and -0.6% projected. The trade surplus was $75.34bn, a touch above expectations, while $68.40bn was the prior outcome.

• The broader improvement in the export trend has been evident since mid 2023, although the recovery remains modest at this stage and sub trends seen in Taiwan and South Korea (in y/y growth terms).
• Base effects also inflated the Dec print for China, given Dec 2022 underperformed.
• Export growth to most countries was negative, although there were pockets of strength in terms of Russia (+21.6%) and Brazil +23.3%).
• On the import side, commodity import volumes were mostly positive. Coal rose strongly, as did oil, +13.9% m/m. Iron ore was down in m/m terms, but remains elevated from a levels standpoint. Natural Gas import volumes rose as well. In value terms, most commodity imports were higher.
• So overall some tentative signs of better export and import growth, but it is unlikely to be enough to turn the market more positive on the near term growth outlook.