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The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked down to 69.1 this month - from 77.2 in April - due to concerns over lingering inflation. The decline is a major warning sign for President Joe Biden that he can't count on a presidential campaign bolstered by receding concerns over inflation.
- Survey director, Joanne Hsu, said: Consumer sentiment fell back about 10% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 8.1 index-point decrease is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about five months.”
- Hsu added: “The year-ahead outlook for business conditions saw a particularly notable decline, while views about personal finances were little changed. Consumers expressed particular concern over labor markets; they expect unemployment rates to rise and income growth to slow... Still, sentiment remains almost 20% above a year ago and about 40% above the all-time historic low in June 2022, reflecting how much consumer views have improved as inflation eased.”
- The Wall Street Journal notes: “Expectations for inflation edged up from a month earlier, staying above the average seen before the Covid-19 pandemic. The sentiment reading was a little higher than economists' expectations. But consumers set out a more pessimistic view of current conditions and the coming months.”
Figure 1: Index of Consumer Sentiment, Final Results for May 2024
Source: University of MichiganWhy MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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