Demand Concerns Limits Upside to Product Crack Spreads

Refined product crack spreads are drifting lower and following the moves in crude due to demand concerns and a stronger US dollar.

• EIA data released yesterday showed another drop in US demand following the winter disruption to refineries. The four week average gasoline product supplied is now 5.2% below the five year average with the only 2020 lower in recent years. Distillate four week product supplied data is 9.2% below the five year average.
• Refinery utilisation fell by over 12% in the week to 30 Dec but product stocks only showed a small decline so the impact could be reflected further in data next week.
• The outage to the Colonial pipeline Line 3 added to the fuel supply disruption to the eastern US from Gulf Coast refiners. The pipeline is expected to resume operation on Saturday.
• Data released this week showed European ARA Gasoil stocks 9.1% below the five year average, US distillate stocks 11.9% below and Singapore Middle Distillates 24.4% below average.
  • US 321 crack down -0.2$/bbl at 31.18$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 21.22$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 51.12$/bbl
  • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.2$/bbl at 7.23$/bbl
  • EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.3$/bbl at 31.77$/bbl