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Demand, Nuclear, Renewables Weighed on NW Europe Gas Output in 2024

POWER

Lackluster power demand and higher nuclear and renewables output have replaced some gas-fired generation in NW Europe so far this year, that declined by 2.3GW/day, or -15%, on the year, JP Morgan said on a note.

  • Year-to-date nuclear generation in France averaged around 40GW/day, around 11% higher on the year.
  • Solar PV and wind output so far this year were up by around 3GW/day, driven by wind output in Germany with an increase of around 1.1GW/day and wind output in the Netherlands, up by 0.7GW/day. Solar PV output in Germany was up by around 0.8GW/day so far this year, compared with 2023 levels.
  • Industrial demand in NW Europe showed a weak rebound, with Jan-May industrial demand down by around 15% compared with 2019.
  • The bank models a modest recovery, and on a full year basis forecast industrial demand at around 13% below the 2019 level.
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