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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Sabato’s Crystal Ball has downgraded Democrats' chances of winning Michigan and Minnesota, noting that, “President Biden’s debate performance was so bad that it has forced us to reassess some of our assumptions about the race.”
- Editor-in-Chief Larry Sabato said in a post-debate reaction, it was, “the worst performance ever by a major party candidate in a general election presidential debate.”
- Sabato says: “One thing that has crystallized for us after the debate is that it may no longer make sense to give Biden the benefit of the doubt... We had been giving Biden the benefit of the doubt in Michigan... But we really can’t justify giving Biden an edge there now, even though we do still expect it to be the bluest part of the “Blue Wall” trio (the group of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)… Just to be clear, Biden has zero plausible paths to the White House without Michigan (and of course Minnesota).”
- Sabato concludes: “If Biden’s position deteriorates further, the next states to move to a more competitive category would be Maine’s two statewide electoral votes as well as Virginia and New Mexico; the ratings for those states remain Likely Democratic.”
- The Michigan rating change is notable, as gov Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) is one of the names circulating as a potential replacement for Biden. Additional analysis on the growing clamour for Biden to step down in today's edition of the US Daily Brief.
Figure 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College Rating Changes
Source: Center for Politics/Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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