The deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight election model is now predicating that Democrats retain control of the Senate in 53 out of 100 sample outcomes (Fig 1).
- This represents a significant change from as recent as June 13 when the GOP was prediction to win in 60 out 100 sample outcomes (Fig 2).
- The change is likely due to the continued poor performance by Republicans candidates in crucial Senate races; Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
- Bettors also seeing tightening off odds for control of the Senate. Smarkets shows Republicans with 58% implied probability of taking control of the chamber, down from close to 80% last month (Fig 3).
- The House is still strongly tipped to go red in November, but has seen a moderate correction toward Democrats this month. This trend is likely to continue following a strong week for Democrats in Congress.
Figure 1: Control of the Senate (FiveThirtyEight)
Figure 2: Control of the Senate over time (FiveThirtyEight)
Figure 3: Control of the Senate (Smarkets)