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Democrats Now Favoured To Retain Control Of Senate In Midterms


The deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight election model is now predicating that Democrats retain control of the Senate in 53 out of 100 sample outcomes (Fig 1).

  • This represents a significant change from as recent as June 13 when the GOP was prediction to win in 60 out 100 sample outcomes (Fig 2).
  • The change is likely due to the continued poor performance by Republicans candidates in crucial Senate races; Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
  • Bettors also seeing tightening off odds for control of the Senate. Smarkets shows Republicans with 58% implied probability of taking control of the chamber, down from close to 80% last month (Fig 3).
  • The House is still strongly tipped to go red in November, but has seen a moderate correction toward Democrats this month. This trend is likely to continue following a strong week for Democrats in Congress.

Figure 1: Control of the Senate (FiveThirtyEight)

Figure 2: Control of the Senate over time (FiveThirtyEight)

Figure 3: Control of the Senate (Smarkets)

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