Deutsche: Mind The Seasonality And Annual Benchmarking

Deutsche sees a +150k payrolls figure Friday, reflecting both a "further slowing in the pace of hiring, as well as a modest impact on employment from omicron" (albeit they published prior to this week's

• They cite small business surveys and initial jobless claims, and note "January is typically a month where most sectors shed seasonal workers and given the tightness of the labor market, fewer layoffs relative to what the seasonal factor anticipates would boost the seasonally-adjusted payroll figure."
• They see the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9% with Omicron weighing on participation.
• And they say M/M changes in household survey employment should be "ignored...regardless of their magnitude" due to the annual re-benchmarking.