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Diesel Cracks Supported by Possible Decline in China Exports

OIL PRODUCTS

Diesel cracks supported by a potential fall in exports from China in March with a seasonal recovery in diesel demand and with spring maintenance.

  • Clean products shipments from China could drop to less than 2m tons next month with approximately 600k tons of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel expected and to the low range from 2H 2021 to 1H 2022 according to Energy Aspects yesterday.
  • Refiners may cut more diesel and jet fuel given the seasonal recovery in diesel demand and increase in domestic air travel.
  • Planned diesel loading may drop to 1m tons in March from 2-2.5m tons in Jan and Feb according to FGE. Gasoil exports could fall by 140kbpd to 300kbpd in March but gasoline exports may rise to low 200kbpd levels as yields shift from diesel.
  • A reduction in China’s exports could create tighter supplies in East of Suez putting more pressure on west coast Indian refiners.
  • Spreads had seen a significant decline since mid Jan due to weak demand and higher than expected global supplies.
    • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 33.04$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.8$/bbl at 38.79$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.2$/bbl at 12.18$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 1.2$/bbl at 24.07$/bbl
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