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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- In the past twenty years, we have observed the existence of a strong co-movement between the SP500 index and the Truck Tonnage Index, which measures the gross tonnage of freight which is transported by motor carriers in the US (it also serves as a indicator of the US economic activity).
- Interestingly, the chart below shows that the two times series have diverged significantly since the March 2020 panic; while US equities have been constantly reaching new all-time highs, the the Truck Tonnage Index has been gradually recovering and is still standing far below its all-time high reached in August 2019.
- One explanation is that the Covid19 shock has just accelerated the rotation from retail to 'e-commerce' that we have seen in the past cycle, implying that American are simply shopping more online.
- The second factor is the sharp liquidity injections from central banks that led to a significant rally in the mega-cap growth stocks, responsible for most of the rally in the SP500.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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