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Divergence In Purchase and Refi Mortgage Applications Grows

US DATA
  • MBA mortgage applications increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M, led by purchases rising 4.7% vs refis -8.9% for an unusually large discrepancy between the two.
  • This discrepancy is clear to see when comparing with late October levels shortly after the 30Y conforming rate mortgage peaked at 7.9%, with it now at 7.37% (-4bps on the week). Since then composite applications have increased 9% vs 16% for purchases and -9% for refis.
  • The below chat does however put these moves into context, with purchase applications unsurprisingly still extremely depressed.
  • Within the details, the spread of the regular 30Y rate and the jumbo loan rate is now more negative than in the months that followed the regional banking crisis for its lowest since May’21 in a sign of tightening credit conditions.

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