MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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DMO consultation feedback on 3-4 linker auctions, 0-1 syndication

GILTS
  • Syndication: Around half of GEMMs supported a linker syndication in the quarter while there were "mixed views" from investors with a number of investors preferring a linker syndication in FQ4 rather than FQ3. In terms of maturities GEMMs mentioned a new 30-year (potentially 2054) while both GEMMs and investors mentioned 2073. GEMMs also mentioned the 2045 while investors mentioned 2039 and 2051.
  • 0.75% Nov-33 linker: GEMMs and investors supported at least one auction of the on-the-run 10-year linker with "a majority of GEMMs" and "a few" investors supporting two reopenings. MNI pencil in 1-2 reopenings in FQ3.
  • 0.125% Mar-39 linker: Recommended for a reopening by the majority of GEMMs and among the range of linkers mentioned by investors.
  • 0.125% Mar-51 linker: Recommended for a reopening by the majority of GEMMs and among the range of linkers mentioned by investors.. MNI noted that assuming that there is not a new 30-year gilt launched via syndication in the quarter, we look for 1-2 reopenings of the 0.125% Mar-51 linker.
  • Other linkers: Investors also mentioned reopenings of the 0.125% Aug-31 linker, the 0.625% Mar-45 linker and the 0.125% Mar-73 linker. Although, we note that the DMO has not sold an issue with a longer maturity than the 0.125% Mar-51 at auction since September 2021.
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