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Dollar Bounce Stymied by Damp Michigan Inflation Expectations

FOREX
  • Markets were largely rangebound Friday, with early closes across Europe and the US sapping activity and volumes. The USD Index started the session in negative territory, before finding some support on a solid set of PCE inflation data. A minor rally of around 0.3% followed before downward revisions to Michigan survey inflation expectations worked against the rally and put the USD very modestly lower through the latter half of the US session.
  • JPY continues to backtrack a small part of the recent strength, and is the weakest amid a quiet G10 backdrop. USD/JPY is edging back toward the Y133.00 handle, still well shy of the week's opening level either side of Y136.00.
  • EURGBP pierced a bull trigger this week, edging higher yesterday and topping 0.8829, the Nov 9 high. The outlook remains positive and a clear break of 0.8829 would strengthen this condition. This would pave the way for a move towards 0.8858, the upper band of a MA envelope and 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • High beta and growth-sensitive currencies saw support throughout, with AUD, NZD and CAD among the strongest performers. An underlying oil rally boosted commodity-tied FX, with refinery capacity in Texas knocked offline by a cold snap - costing over 1.5mln bpd in output. As a result, WTI crude futures ended the pre-Christmas period above $80/bbl.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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