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Dollar on an Early Run, Nears YTD Highs

FOREX
  • The greenback is on a tear early Friday, rallying against all others in G10. The move is seen as a continuation of late greenback strength Thursday, which followed comments from both Fed's Bullard and Mester raising the possibility of a return to 50bps rate hike steps from the FOMC to contain inflation. The comments have prompted some upside in March Fed rate pricing, with markets now assigning a small likelihood of a larger-than-25bps rate hike.
  • The rate re-pricing is working against both bond and equity futures markets, which sit lower and are extending the week's weakness well into Friday trade. US 10y yields are through the early January highs, and a further 10bps rally would put rates at the psychological 4.00% handle.
  • EUR is gaining in tandem, with NZD, AUD and NOK among the hardest hit ahead of the NY crossover. USD/NOK is narrowing the gap with resistance and the bull trigger at 10.4335, a break above which would put rates at the best level since mid-November last year.
  • US Import/Export price indices are the data highlight Friday, with Canadian industrial product prices also on the docket. This should keep focus on the speaker slate, with ECB's Villeroy and Fed's Barkin & Bowman on the docket.
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