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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China May Inject CNY1 Trln To Replenish Big Banks
Dovish Impact From Fed, A Little Over 40bp Of 24 Cuts Priced
Spill over from last night's FOMC decision filters into GBP STIRs at the open, leaving SONIA futures 0.25-7.5bp higher vs. settlement, with most contracts a little shy of their early session highs.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~42bp of cuts vs. ~36bp late yesterday.
- A full 25bp cut is once again fully discounted through the end of the Sep MPC.
- Plenty of desks argue that GBP STIRs have exhibited an exaggerated beta to the recent U.S. data developments and hawkish Fed repricing.
- While we don’t disagree, further slowing of the UK CPI/wage pressures and related BoE communique is probably required to trigger greater divergence in Fed & BoE pricing.
- The UK calendar is essentially empty today, which will leave focus on broader macro headline flow and post-FOMC reaction in EUR & GBP markets.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.200 | +0.0 |
Jun-24 | 5.118 | -8.2 |
Aug-24 | 5.002 | -19.8 |
Sep-24 | 4.937 | -26.3 |
Nov-24 | 4.842 | -35.8 |
Dec-24 | 4.778 | -42.2 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.