Downtrend In Black Voter Turnout May Hinder Democrats In 2024

The Washington Post has reported that participation in midterm elections dropped nearly 4 percent from 2018 to 2022. Washington Post: “Turnout in last year’s midterm elections fell from a century-high point of 50 percent in 2018 to 46.6 percent in 2022, and census data released Tuesday suggest the drop was concentrated among Black voters, younger voters and college graduates.”

• WaPo notes, “The decline in Black turnout may have hurt Democratic candidates in some midterm contests, according Michael McDonald, a turnout expert and University of Florida Associate Professor. McDonald said lower-than-expected turnout in Milwaukee ‘likely cost the Democrats the Wisconsin Senate seat and could have made some other races much closer than what they appeared to be, for example Florida.’"
• New York Times wrote following the 2022 midterm elections: "...relatively low Black turnout is becoming an unmistakable trend in the post-Obama era, raising important — if yet unanswered — questions about how Democrats can revitalize the enthusiasm of their strongest group of supporters."

Figure 2: Turnout by Race and Ethnicity in Midterms Since 2002

Source: Washington Post