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Driven higher by geopolitcial risks ahead of the ECB and US CPI

BONDS

Core fixed income has moved higher in the European session, with the latest headlines suggesting that Ukraine will not agree to give up any sovereignty to Russia and Russia stating that it will continue its mission until its objectives are acheived.

  • Gilts and Bunds are outperforming Treasuries. The German curve is bull steepening, and steepening much more than the gilt curve (with SONIA futures and short-dated gilts reversing some of yesterday's sell-off).
  • Looking ahead we have the ECB meeting today with the policy decision at 12:45GMT / 7:45ET and the press conference at 13:30GMT / 8:30ET. Having appeared to be gearing up to normalise monetary policy, the ECB’s calculus has now changed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Markets now price in around 32bp of hikes in 2022. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
  • We also have US CPI at 13:30GMT / 8:30ET. There seems to be two-way risk to markets from the print with a miss in core inflation after last week's softer AHE earnings number, dialing down market pricing for hikes later this year. However, given Powell's talk of 50bp hikes down the line if inflation runs hot, a higher than expected print here could see the market price more in. For the full MNI US CPI Preview click here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-3+ today at 126-21 with 10y UST yields down -2.1bp at 1.934% and 2y yields down -1.6bp at 1.666%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.36 today at 163.94 with 10y Bund yields down -3.4bp at 0.179% and Schatz yields up 0.1bp at -0.504%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.32 today at 122.64 with 10y yields down -3.7bp at 1.488% and 2y yields down -3.1bp at 1.375%.
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