May 24, 2024 08:15 GMT
DS Smith (SMDSLN NA/BBB-/NA): IP Merger in Doubt?
BASIC INDUSTRIES
Potential upside for SMDSLN spreads; probably too many steps removed for this to get repriced for now, but something to be aware of. SMDSLN 4.375 27s look cheap (15 wide to the STERV curve vs SMDSLN 4.5 30s in-line) at Z+90.
- Recent reports have linked Brazilian pulp producer Suzano to International Paper. It has confirmed interest in IP assets, with analysts suggesting a deal for cellulose assets could have logic.
- Some media reports have suggested Suzano is looking at a full bid, with Bloomberg reporting yesterday that financing talk are underway with banks. Such a deal could jeopardise the DS Smith merger.
- Should that deal fall through, Mondi may restart its interest in DS Smith. Mondi was the original bidder but got outbid by IP. The roadshow for yesterday’s new issue put M&A as a lower capital allocation priority although the previous agreement was an all-share deal.
- MNDILN (Baa1/A-/NA) is a stronger credit than IP (Baa2/BBB/NR) and should the above scenario play out, it would be positive for SMDSLN spreads.
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