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Duda Gives Morawiecki First Shot At Forming Gov't In Defiance Of Opposition's Calls

POLAND
  • President Andrzej Duda announced that he would ask Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to try and form government, while tapping PSL's Marek Sawicki to become the Senior Speaker of the Sejm (a largely ceremonial function during the opening meeting of new parliament). The decisions came as no surprise after being leaked in the local press hours before the announcement, with Gazeta Wyborcza suggesting that Duda changed his mind re: his PM candidate at the eleventh hour. His decision has little consequence beyond delaying the installation of a pro-EU government led by Civic Coalition's Donald Tusk, which has a comfortable majority in the incoming parliament. Duda will now have two weeks from the inaugural meeting of parliament on November 13 to formally nominate Morawiecki, who will then have another two weeks to present his policy agenda in parliament and seek a vote of confidence.
  • The President's decision might be a kiss of death for Morawiecki, who is doomed to fail in his endeavour to form government and will likely become a scapegoat for the recent electoral defeat. Morawiecki represents a relatively moderate and pragmatic wing of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and had previously been mentioned as a potential successor to the Law and Justice (PiS) party's ageing leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The decline in his status may open up room for renewed factional conflict to fill the resultant vacuum of power, which may affect the policy profile of Poland's largest party.
  • In the meantime, pro-EU parties are preparing to announce their coalition agreement by the end of this week. A source told Money.pl that the new government could increase the annual personal tax-free allowance to PLN60k from 2025 amid the perception that the current fiscal situation would not allow for an immediate adjustment. According to DGP, the current draft of the coalition agreement has 24 bullet points, including a commitment to hold outgoing officials to account.
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