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DXY Hovers Around Unchanged As ISM Services PMI Takes Shine Off Greenback

  • Early greenback strength on Monday, largely an extension of post-payrolls demand, dissipated in US hours as weaker US data took the shine off the renewed greenback optimism. USDJPY was the most impacted following the data, as has regularly been the case in recent times given the sensitivity to US yields.
  • Lower than expected final S&P PMIs set the tone for the pair, with the downside move gaining traction through the overnight lows and then extending on the significant miss for ISM services index (52.4 vs 50.3 est.).
  • After reaching as high as 140.45 in early Europe, USDJPY sank to a fresh low of 139.25 although around 50 pips of that move have been pared as we approach the APAC crossover.
    • Bullish conditions remain intact with pullbacks appearing to be corrective at this juncture. Recent highs resulted in a test of the top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 141.01 today and represents a key resistance. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. Key support to watch is 138.20, the 20-day EMA.
  • Yen weakness beyond the 140.00 level has drawn increased verbal rhetoric from Japan authorities in recent weeks, so this will likely remain a focus point going forward if we see meaningful weakness beyond this figure level. Labour cash earnings and household spending data is due overnight. Final Q1 GDP figures will be released on Thursday, as well as April current account data.

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