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Earlier Goldman BoC view change

  • GS now expects 50bp for Dec (25bp previously) given only gradual slowdown in underlying inflation.
  • Still predict a 50bp hike next week as the Bank switches to a more cautious tone but elevated risk of 75bp given the moves upward in short-term consumer inflation expectations and the perceived inflation target, plus hawkish communication.
  • Those looking for 75bp next week include BMO, CIBC, Scotia and TD from local banks plus JPM.

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