July 15, 2024 09:36 GMT
Early Modest Rally Holds, Data Eyed Later This Week
GILTS
Gilts hold early, modest rally. Move away from lows in European equities & oil futures cap gains.
- Futures +10 at 98.26. Thursday’s range presents initial support & resistance (97.63/98.53).
- Cash gilt yields 0.5-2.0bp lower.
- Any pressure from Tsys/heightened odds of a second Presidential term for Trump quickly countered at the open.
- Dovish BoE MPC dissenter Dhingra has reiterated her views re: the need for rate cuts, which, when coupled with steepening U.S. Tsy curve, resulted in bull steepening for gilts.
- SONIA futures little changed to +4.0.
- Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS, showing 11.5bp of cuts for Aug & 49bp of easing through year end.
- GBP800mn of short-dated gilt sales from the BoE’s APF are due this afternoon.
- We will release our preview of this week’s UK CPI & labour market data tomorrow.
133 words