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Early Modest Rally Holds, Data Eyed Later This Week

GILTS

Gilts hold early, modest rally. Move away from lows in European equities & oil futures cap gains.

  • Futures +10 at 98.26. Thursday’s range presents initial support & resistance (97.63/98.53).
  • Cash gilt yields 0.5-2.0bp lower.
  • Any pressure from Tsys/heightened odds of a second Presidential term for Trump quickly countered at the open.
  • Dovish BoE MPC dissenter Dhingra has reiterated her views re: the need for rate cuts, which, when coupled with steepening U.S. Tsy curve, resulted in bull steepening for gilts.
  • SONIA futures little changed to +4.0.
  • Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS, showing 11.5bp of cuts for Aug & 49bp of easing through year end.
  • GBP800mn of short-dated gilt sales from the BoE’s APF are due this afternoon.
  • We will release our preview of this week’s UK CPI & labour market data tomorrow.
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Gilts hold early, modest rally. Move away from lows in European equities & oil futures cap gains.

  • Futures +10 at 98.26. Thursday’s range presents initial support & resistance (97.63/98.53).
  • Cash gilt yields 0.5-2.0bp lower.
  • Any pressure from Tsys/heightened odds of a second Presidential term for Trump quickly countered at the open.
  • Dovish BoE MPC dissenter Dhingra has reiterated her views re: the need for rate cuts, which, when coupled with steepening U.S. Tsy curve, resulted in bull steepening for gilts.
  • SONIA futures little changed to +4.0.
  • Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS, showing 11.5bp of cuts for Aug & 49bp of easing through year end.
  • GBP800mn of short-dated gilt sales from the BoE’s APF are due this afternoon.
  • We will release our preview of this week’s UK CPI & labour market data tomorrow.