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Early Rally Fades A Little On Eurozone CPI, Bull Steepening Still Intact

GILTS

Gilt futures are back from early highs, with recent pressure coming from firmer-than-expected Italian & Eurozone CPI readings.

  • Heightened tension in the Middle East, as well as softer-than-expected French & Australian CPI data, drove the early rally.
  • The rally stopped shy of key resistance at the June 21 high (99.23), with the contract back to 98.88 vs. best levels of 99.16, last ~15 ticks higher on the day.
  • Yields last 1-3bp lower across the curve, bull steepening.
  • Gilt bulls couldn’t hold a move below 4.00% in 10-Year yields, with the early April low in 10s (3.978%) remaining untouched.
  • SONIA futures last unchanged to +6.0, back from highs alongside gilts.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 13bp of cuts for tomorrow’s meeting and ~54bp of easing through year end, little changed and ~2bp lower on the day respectively.
  • Our full BoE preview can be found here.

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt Yield (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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