MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Choppiness Not A Clear Signal For Worry

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

Factory Orders Decline as Non-EU Orders Dip

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

MNI: UK JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 52.2 (FCST: 54.0); MAY 54.7

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

US TSYS
Mixed option trade overnight: SOFR options tended towards upside call structures, Treasury options on 5- and 10Y puts. Off overnight highs, underlying futures still bid following Monday's late rally after US Tsy cut Q1 borrow est's from $816B to $760B. Projected rate cuts in H1 2024 largely steady ahead tomorrow's FOMC: January 2024 cumulative -.5bp at 5.324%, March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut -46.5% w/ cumulative of -12.1bp at 5.208%, May 2024 at -82.7% w/ cumulative -32.8bp at 5.001%, June 2024 -98.1% w/ cumulative -57.3bp at 4.756%. Fed terminal at 5.325% in Feb'24.
  • SOFR Options:
    • 2,000 0QG4 96.56/96.62 call spds ref 96.355
    • 2,000 SFRH4 94.75/94.93/95.12 put flys
    • 2,400 SFRM4 94.62/94.87/95.12 put flys
    • 8,800 SFRH4 94.75/94.87/95.00 call flys ref 94.87
    • 8,000 SFRM4 95.12/95.75/96.00 broken call flys ref 95.295
    • 2,000 SFRU4 96.00/96.50 call spds ref 95.705
    • 3,000 SFRG4 94.93/95.00 call spds, 1.5 ref 94.87
  • Treasury Options:
    • 3,000 TYH4 109.5/111 2x1 put spds, 14 ref 111-21
    • 3,000 TYH4 109 puts, 5 last
    • over 5,200 TYH4 110 puts, 13 last
    • 10,000 FVH4 107.25/107.5 put spds
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