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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE and ECB implied cuts deepened after Tuesday's softer-than-expected US CPI print.
- Implied hikes to the peak haven't changed much (ECB is still expected to be done; still 3bp left priced in the cycle for BoE).
- Cuts priced for the year following the peak increased by 11bp for ECB (94bp of cuts between Dec 2023 and Dec 2024), and 15bp for BoE (93bp of cuts between Feb/Mar 2024 and Feb/Mar 2025).
- The first full 25bp ECB cut from peak is still seen in Jun 2024, though Apr 2024 now shows 80% implied probability of that outcome (vs 64% prior). For the BoE, the first cut from peak is fully priced by Jun 2024, vs Aug 2024 previously, with prob of a cut by the June MPC up a cumulative 32pp today (was roughly 68%, now a 25bp cut is fully priced).
- While unlikely to prove as significant a catalyst as today's US print, UK CPI data is released first thing Wednesday - MNI's preview is here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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