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ECB / BoE Hike Pricing Regain Ground But Still Lower On The Week

STIR

BoE and ECB peak pricing rose from session lows Friday to finish higher, in sympathy with a belated post-Powell speech US rates selloff, but closed the week 12bp and 2bp lower, respectively.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +3.1bp to 3.93% (17bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023. 8bp is priced for September's meeting - MNI's ECB Sources piece today pointed to the Governing Council mulling a hawkish pause. Next week's inflation data could be decisive on that front.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +1.8bp to 5.89% (64bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024) Pricing for September's MPC implies a full 25bp hike with small (<10%) chance of a 50bp raise, with 47bp of hikes priced through the next two meetings cumulatively. Reminder that UK markets are closed Monday for a bank holiday.

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