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ECB Implied Rates Remain Within Recent Ranges

STIR

ECB implied rates have operated within recently observed ranges for the majority of the day, with OIS still pricing 93bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024.

  • Comments from the ECB's Kazaks were in line with his typical stance (r.e. warning against easing policy too early).
  • The Euribor strip is +1.0 to -1.5 ticks through the blues, recently coming under some light pressure alongside bonds.
  • Tomorrow's highlight will be the February flash inflation data from France (0745GMT), Spain (0800GMT) and Germany (1300GMT, with state-level data released from 0900GMT).
  • Our full inflation preview is here.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.901-0.4
Apr-243.834-7.1
Jun-243.645-26.0
Jul-243.495-41.0
Sep-243.298-60.7
Oct-243.140-76.5
Dec-242.971-93.4
Jan-252.838-106.7
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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