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ECB pressor summary

CREDIT MACRO

Most of the dovish comments in the pressor seemed to be on optimistic take on labour market/wages easing; "Seeing stabilisation and on Indeed seeing reduction in positions advertised" & on inflation "Look at underlying inflation - are seeing decline apart from domestic inflation. Also look at inflation exp. And look at latest inflation numbers - Dec was 0.5ppt north of the Nov. Was largely caused by base effects and largely from Germany. Disinflation process is at work."
Some pushback later but it was after being asked about April cut "Need to be further along in disinflation process before can be confident inflation will hit the target sustainably. Giving insight into trajectory - but it's not forward guidance."Only upside risk to inflation was shipping disruptions which was downplayed early in the Q&A "Would be wary of comparing supply bottle necks to disruption during covid. There is more shipping capacity than 2020/21 but costs/fees are increasing. Most observers say it is having a moderate impact. Shipping is around 1.5% of total costs. If there was escalation in the region, would need to see the impact it had on shipping or indeed the impact of energy / fuel costs."
Belly bunds seem to be finding some support at a -6bp rally on the day while US rates are holding onto its post-GDP moves (-5bps on day). Equites bid in both regions & S&P futures +0.4% for the cash open.

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