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ECB pricing ahead of the HICP print

STIR FUTURES
  • Ahead of the HICP print there is 50bp almost fully priced in for tomorrow's ECB meeting. This is unlikely to really move much unless we got an absolutely huge surprise in the data - and even then it would be a big risk for the ECB to place too much emphasis on today's print given that we won't have any German data included in it other than estimates.
  • Markets are pricing 94bp by March, 124bp by May and then a peak around 149bp in July / September before the curve starts to invert a little.
  • Towards the end of last week terminal rate expectations were around 143bp but moved higher following the Spain HICP print on Monday.
  • A lower print today could see us move back towards those levels, but a higher print, particularly a higher core print, could see us push up to yesterday's highs of around 154bp initially.
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