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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Market-implied ECB and BoE rate cut pricing was pared Monday, as ECB policymakers took a relatively hawkish stance against 2024 reductions.
- ECB rate cut pricing for 2024 decreased by around 6bp vs Friday's close, to 148bp. A first full cut remains priced for April's meeting but for March the implied likelihood has dropped from around 40% to around 28%.
- Apparent pushback against market rate cut pricing included Austria's Holzmann, who noted that the ECB may not cut in 2024, Germany's Nagel, who pointed to cut deliberation after the "summer break", and less characteristically Cyprus's Herodotou calling rate cut talk premature. This followed ECB's Lane over the weekend who noted that key wage data essential for rate cut decisions will only be available by June.
- BoE 2024 rate cuts are now seen totaling around 132bp, around 2bp less than seen on Friday. The first cut is now seen coming by June's MPC, with May no longer seen as a sure thing (around 95% implied now, vs 104% Friday), with 30% implied probability of an March cut.
- Attention is on UK labour market and inflation data out Tuesday and Wednesday - MNI's preview is here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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