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Eco-Outlook Quicktake

US
Natwest strategists posit the US expect the economy will "maintain momentum in the second half of the year (we continue to estimate +7.0% in Q3 and +5.0% in Q4)" citing god chances of robust fiscal stimulus still passing and improvements in Covid-19 vaccine metrics that "should significantly boost consumer confidence and spark pent-up demand for spending on virus-sensitive industries in the services sector."
  • Once the vaccine-related impetus to economic growth has passed and as the boost from fiscal support wanes, real GDP growth is likely to moderate in 2022; we forecast 2.5% growth next year. Given this path for growth, labor markets will continue to improve slowly (as the labor force participation rate picks back up), and we expect unemployment will edge down to 5.5% by the end of 2021 and 4.7% by the end of 2022—well above its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%.

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