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Economists Forecasting Lower End-2024 Rate, BCCh Minutes Thursday

CHILE
  • Following the most recent BCCh meeting, economists surveyed by the central bank now forecast the 2024 year-end rate at 4.25% vs 4.75% in the prior survey. They expect another 100bp cut in April, followed by a 75bp decrease in May. Economists are predicting that economic activity will register at 0% Y/y in January.
  • USDCLP broke to fresh 15-month highs last week, reaching 974.68 on Friday, as recent large BCCh rate cuts weigh on the peso. After breaking resistance at 962.84, the Oct 25 ‘22 low, the next level of note is 985.84, the Oct 25 ‘22 high. With this in mind, the minutes to the recent BCCh monetary policy meeting will be of interest on Thursday, with the focus on any insight these provide into policymakers concerns about the currency and the potential implications for the rate cutting cycle.
  • In other news, government debt ended 2023 at 39.8% of GDP, according to the Ministry of Finance Q4 public finances report, as compared to 38.2% previously. The fiscal deficit came in at 2.4% of GDP in 2023, vs. 2.3% forecast previously. The Government expects the deficit to narrow to 1.9% of GDP this year and to be on a trajectory to a 0.5% of GDP structural deficit from 2026 onwards. In the absence of a meaningful tax reform, Goldman Sachs expect growing social demands and a larger stock of public debt to continue to exert some pressure on public finances and for public debt to remain on a gradual upward trajectory medium-term.
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