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EGB/Gilt - Attention turns to the Fed, Dot plot and presser

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund have been bid most of the day, but are trading near mid ranges at the time of typing.
  • Safer haven have benefited this morning on Russia tension.
  • But desks have also likely squared, positioned ahead of the Fed, when a 75bps hike is expected.
  • Plenty of focus on the dot plot which will be release at the same as the decision, for clue on the terminal rate.
  • Peripheral spreads are mixed, Italy is 1.7bp tighter, while Greece is 3.4bps wider against the German 10yr, albeit still withing ranges.
  • Gilt future has underperformed Germany and worth keeping an eye on the Gilt/Bund spread going forward.
  • The spread is at 144bps, just ahead of the decent resistance at 145.30bps, the 2022 peak and widest level since April 2015.
  • Looking ahead, FED: Fwd Guidance Adds Would Probably Echo Jackson Hole:
  • The most closely-watched part of the FOMC Statement will be the forward guidance on rates ( which is currently “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”).
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