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EGB/Gilt: Linker Yields Moving on UK Inflation Surprise

BOND SUMMARY
  • Gilts and Bunds have moved to their highest levels of the week and Bund futures have broken through the 20-day EMA as core bonds move higher globally.
  • Peripheral spreads have generally widened a little - led by some of the smaller nations - Lithuania and Cyprus with GGB and BTP spreads also widening out a bit.
  • UK inflation was higher than expected with clothing, transport and furniture driving prices 1.0% Y/Y higher against expectations of 0.6%. Larger surprises were seen in core CPI and RPI. The yield on the 0.125% Aug-28 linker has fallen by 4.3bp at writing whereas on the 1.625% Oct-28 conventional gilt yields have only fallen 2.1bp.
  • Eurozone final CPI was generally in line with the flash and has seen little market reaction.
  • The attention of markets now turns to Minutes - with the FOMC Minutes tonight and the ECB Accounts tomorrow.
  • Friday is the bigger day for data across the region, however, with flash PMIs and UK retail sales/public finance data.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.29 today at 137.34 with Bund futures up 0.35 today at 176.78, BTP futures up 0.25 at 148.09 and OAT futures up 0.36 at 168.78.

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