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EGB/ Gilts: Bunds retrace half their earlier gains ; gilts hold on to them

BONDS
  • Bunds ground higher through the European morning session, with futures moving from a low of 133.29 in the Asian session to a high of 134.11 around when the US came in. However, more than 50% of the intraday move was retraced in early afternoon trading. 10-year Bund yields now stand 2.8bp lower on the day but 9.7bp higher than the pre-Christmas closing level. This is not a million miles from the 9.1bp increase in 10-year UST yields seen this week but the German curve has steepened much more with Schatz yields up just 1.9bp in 2-days versus 5.4bp for 2-year USTs.
  • Peripheral spreads have widened with 10-year BTP-Bund spreads around 6.5bp wider on the day at writing.
  • Gilts had been the big movers on their open, catching up with some of the moves seen yesterday in Bunds and Treasuries. Yields across the curve were over 10bp higher on the day at one point with a parallel curve shift, but 10-year yields are now up around 3.3bp on the day with a steeper curve (2-year gilt yields up 2.2bp).
  • There has been very little in the way of domestic European drivers, and with little liquidity in the holiday period some of the moves have been exaggerated.
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