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MNI Estimates Total Gross Issuance Of E25.5bn Week Feb 1

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

The EFSF, Germany, Spain, France and potentially Belgium will all come to the market next week to sell bonds. We expect total gross issuance of E25.5bln.

  • The EFSF will likely kick off issuance for the week on Monday. No date has yet been confirmed but the EFSF sent an RFP to banks on Wed 27 February. We expect an issuance volume of E2.0bln, potentially rising to E2.5bln. The EFSF has already issued E5.0bln of its Q1 issuance target of E7.0bln.
  • Germany will come to the market on Tuesday selling E6bln of the new Mar-23 Schatz.
  • On Thursday, Spain looks to sell the 0% May-24 Bono, the 0.10% Apr-31 Obli and the 0.70% Nov-30 ObliEi. Amounts will be announced Monday.
  • Also Thursday France looks to sell E10-11bln of LT OATS: the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 1.25% May-36 OAT, the 1.75% Jun-39 OAT and the 0.75% May-52 OAT will all be on offer.
  • Finally, Friday sees a provisional date for Belgium to use its ORI facility.
CASH FLOWS: There are E19.9bln of redemptions due (largely due to E19.4bln of the 0.05% JAn-31 Bono maturing). There are also heavy coupon payments of E11.4bln (including Spain E5.8bln and Italy E4.4bln). Together these will outweigh issuance of E25.5bln, leaving net cash flows of minus E5.8bln (against a positive flow of E41.7bln last week).

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.

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