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EGB supply for W/C Mar 22, 2021

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

The EU through its SURE programme is due to hold a syndication this week while Belgium the Netherlands, Germany and Italy are all due to hold auctions. We estimate nominal gross issuance of E13.1bln from auctions with up to E13bln from the SURE syndication, down from a total of E37.6bln issued this week.

  • Belgium looks to kick off issuance for the week this morning with E2.5-3.0bln of 5/10/20y OLOs on offer: the 1.00% Jun-26 OLO, the 0% Oct-31 OLO and the 0.40% Jun-40 OLO.
  • The EU is likely to hold a transaction for its SURE programme this week with up to a possible E13bln on offer according to the EU's 12 March Investor Presentation. We therefore think there is a good chance of a dual-tranche transaction. We expect the mandate to be released today with the transaction taking place tomorrow.
  • The Netherlands will also come to the market tomorrow, looking to sell E1.5-2.5bln of the 2.50% Jan-33 DSL.
  • On Wednesday, Germany looks to sell E4bln of its 0% Feb-31 Bund.
  • Italy will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with CTZ/BTPei and potentially a new BTP Short Term on offer. Details will be announced today.
Net nominal flows: There are E4.8bln of redemptions due this week: E1.8bln of an EU FRN, E2bln of an ITALY EMTN and E1bln of a Slovakia international bond. Coupons total E0.8nln. With nominal gross issuance of E26.1bln for the week, we look for net nominal flows of E20.5bln (down from E34.3bln last week).

For more details and a full calendar of all announced operations see the MNI Eurozone/UK Bond Auction Calendar here.

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