EGB Supply - W/C 15 January, 2024 (2/2)

• Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction on Thursday. On offer will be the 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34) and the 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60). As is normal for an auction near a syndication date, we expect it may be a bit smaller than the E5.5-6.5bln target range seen in the early month nominal auction.
• France will then come to the market to hold a MT OAT auction with E10.5-12.0bln on offer. A new 3-year 2.50% Sep-27 OAT will be on offer alongside the 5-year on-the-run 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98) and the off-the-run 0.50% May-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013407236).
• France will conclude issuance for the week, also on Thursday, with an IL OATs auction with a combined E1.5-2.0bln on offer across the 3.40% Jul-29 OATi (ISIN: FR0000186413), the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88) and the 0.10% Jul-38 Green OATei (ISIN: FR001400AQH0).

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees heavy redemptions of E33.7bln (E14.4bln of a formerly 3-year BTP, E15.3bln of a formerly 6-year DSL and E4.0bln of a formerly 5-year EFSF-bond. Coupon payments for the week total E4.6bln (E3.7bln Dutch, E0.7bln Italian). This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated negative E12.1bln, versus positive E66.8bln this week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix see the full PDF here.