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EGB Supply - W/C 29 January (3/3)

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Possible syndications:

  • Belgium: We pencil in a second Belgian syndication of 2024 during the week. The most likely new issue in our view is probably a new 30-year OLO. The BDA has also noted that it plans for one new medium-term OLO to be launched in the year which could potentially be launched in this window rather than the 30-year OLO. We see an Oct-30 OLO as the most likely maturity (potentially Oct-29). There is a current coupon gap in the OLO curve around this area.
  • Greece will potentially hold a syndication in the week, with a launch of a new 10-year GGB most likely. Issue sizes over past few years have generally been E3.0-3.5bln, but given the strong demand at other EGB syndications recently, we see a chance that this deal is potentially upsized.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees redemptions totalling E32.7bln: E14.9bln from an Italian BTP Short Term, E17.6bln of a formerly 15-year Spanish Obli and E0.25bln from an Italian sinkable private placement as a result of Ammassi Aima. Coupons for the week total E8.8bln: E4.5bln Italian, E3.4bln Spanish and E1.0bln Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E4.9bln, down from E20.8bln this week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix see the full PDF here.

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