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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bear Flattening With 75bp Sept Hikes Eyed

BONDS

Wednesday’s main development was continued pressure at the front end of European curves as near-term central bank hike pricing ratcheted higher. The UK and German curves bear flattened, with Gilts underperforming.

  • Today’s catalysts were higher-than-expected Italian and Eurozone August inflation, with multiple analysts changing their calls for next week's meeting to reflect a 75bp hike (the market is now pricing in 67bp, vs 54bp last week). BoE currently 62bp for September.
  • Plenty of attention on the monthly closes, with yields across the German and UK curves rising by their most in decades - 2s and 5s in both the UK and Germany saw their biggest monthly rises since at least the early 1990s. 2Y UK yields rose a total of 131bp in August.
  • High-beta periphery instruments underperformed, with 10Y Italian and Greek spreads widening 3/4bp on the day.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 4.9bps at 1.202%, 5-Yr is up 5bps at 1.391%, 10-Yr is up 3bps at 1.541%, and 30-Yr is up 2.4bps at 1.627%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 10.1bps at 3.021%, 5-Yr is up 9.4bps at 2.764%, 10-Yr is up 9.7bps at 2.801%, and 30-Yr is up 9.9bps at 3.078%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 3.2bps at 235.2bps / Greek up 4.2bps at 256.6bps

UK 2Y Generic Yield, pp Change On MonthSource: Bloomberg, MNI

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