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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Last-Minute Brexit Surprise Cements Gilt Gains

BONDS

Gilts closed the week on a strong note, with the long end rallying on a Bloomberg article out just minutes before the cash close: "EU Considers Terminating Brexit Trade Deal If UK Rift Deepens".

  • The move cemented Gilt outperformance of Bunds and Treasuries on the day, but perhaps notably, the short-end didn't react much (perhaps the news is not seen impacting near-term BoE hike odds).
  • Both the German and UK curves flattened Friday. Periphery spreads widened slightly.
  • Data was mixed: UK retail sales disappointed in September, though UK PMI impressed while Eurozone numbers were generally on the weak side of expectations.
  • After hours ratings reviews include Greece, Italy, and the UK.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.9bps at -0.637%, 5-Yr is up 0.9bps at -0.423%, 10-Yr is down 0.3bps at -0.105%, and 30-Yr is down 3.3bps at 0.239%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.8bps at 0.661%, 5-Yr is down 3.4bps at 0.829%, 10-Yr is down 5.7bps at 1.145%, and 30-Yr is down 8.1bps at 1.361%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1.1bps at 110.4bps / Spanish up 0.7bps at 63.3bps
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